• Alert Level 0 | End of Dry Season for the Southern ASEAN Region
  • The downgrade of Alert Level 1 to Alert Level 0 indicates the end of dry season for the southern ASEAN region. The regional haze situation will be updated daily at 0900 UTC.

Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Showers and cloudy conditions were observed over most parts of the ASEAN region today with the exception of drier conditions over parts of the Mekong sub-region, the Philippines and Kalimantan. A few hotspots were detected in parts of the Mekong sub-region and in Kalimantan. Slight smoke plumes were observed to emanate from hotspots in the central parts of Myanmar. The full extent of the hotspot and haze situation could not be fully determined due to extensive cloud cover.

Weather and Haze Outlook

Over the next few days, wet weather is expected to continue over the southern ASEAN region, Viet Nam and the Philippines while drier conditions are forecast over the rest of the Mekong sub-region. Localised hotspots and isolated smoke plumes may occur in areas facing prolonged drier conditions. The prevailing winds north of the Equator are forecast to blow from the northeast to east while areas south of the Equator are forecast to blow from the west or northwest.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for December 2025 – February 2026

Summary of Outlook

The inter-monsoon conditions typically continue to transition gradually to the Northeast Monsoon over the ASEAN region in December. As the monsoon rainband shifts towards the south of the Equator, the prevailing winds over most of the ASEAN region are likely to strengthen and blow mainly from the northeast or northwest. The prevailing winds could further intensify at times during the Northeast Monsoon surge. During the outlook period, the northern and southern ASEAN region typically experience their dry and wet seasons respectively.

For the December 2025 to February 2026 (DJF) period, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northeastern Maritime Continent. Current ENSO state is La Niña conditions, with weak to moderate La Niña conditions predicted for November 2025 – January 2026, with some models predicting the La Nina conditions to continue into February – March 2026. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is present and is predicted to persist until December 2025. Both La Niña and negative IOD events tend to bring wetter conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. Above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the Maritime Continent for DJF 2025-2026.

The dry season for the northern ASEAN region is likely to begin towards the end of the year. While above-normal rainfall is expected over some parts of the region, the hotspot and smoke haze situation could still escalate, particularly in fire-prone areas, under the overall dry conditions in the region. Over the southern ASEAN region, the overall hotspot and smoke haze situation is forecast to remain subdued under the prevailing wet weather conditions. However, isolated hotspots with smoke plumes could develop when the region experiences occasional drier conditions, particularly during the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon typically occurring during late January and February.

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ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.

25th ASEAN COF

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