Regional Haze Situation

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Latest Weather and Haze Situation

Dry conditions were observed over most parts of the northern ASEAN region today. Clusters of widespread hotspots were detected in the eastern parts of Myanmar, the central parts of Lao PDR while isolated to scattered hotspots were detected elsewhere in the Mekong sub- region. Moderate to dense smoke haze was observed in most parts of Myanmar as well as the northern parts of Thailand. Moderate smoke plumes from the central parts of Thailand were observed to blow westwards into the southern parts of Myanmar. Moderate smoke plumes from the central parts of Lao PDR were observed to drift westwards into the eastern parts of Thailand. A localised slight smoke plume was observed in the northern parts of the Philippines. The hotspot and smoke haze situation could not be fully determined due to extensive cloud cover over the northeastern parts of the Mekong sub- region.

For the southern ASEAN region, scattered showers were observed except for drier conditions observed over parts of Peninsular Malaysia and the central parts of Sumatra. A few hotspots were detected in parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Java, Sulawesi and the central parts of Sumatra. No significant smoke plumes were observed from recent satellite imagery.

Weather and Haze Outlook

In the coming days, dry conditions are forecast to continue over many parts of the Mekong sub-region except for showers forecast over parts of Viet Nam, the eastern parts of Myanmar as well as the northern and southern parts of Thailand. Showers can provide some relief to the current situation, however prolonged drier conditions in other areas of the Mekong sub-region can still lead to elevated hotspot and smoke haze activates with a risk of transboundary haze occurrence. The prevailing winds over the northern ASEAN region are forecast to blow mainly from the northeast to east with the exception of the prevailing winds over Myanmar forecast to blow from the southwest.

For the southern ASEAN region, isolated showers are forecast to continue with the exception of relatively drier conditions over parts of Peninsular Malaysia, the central parts of Sumatra and the southwestern parts of Kalimantan. The hotspot and smoke haze situation over the southern ASEAN region is forecast to remain mostly subdued, however isolated hotspots and localised smoke plumes may still emerge in these drier areas. The prevailing winds over the southern ASEAN region are forecast to blow from the west or northwest while the prevailing winds over Peninsular Malaysia and the northern parts of Borneo are forecast to blow from the northeast.

  • All maps are to be used solely for displaying meteorological/geophysical information, and not for any other purpose. All maps are not to scale and for illustrative purpose only.
  • The hotspots depicted on the map are derived from the NOAA satellite and they represent locations with possible fires. Hotspots may go undetected due to cloudy conditions or incomplete satellite pass.
  • At Alert Level 0 and Alert Level 1, the regional haze situation is updated once a day at 0900 UTC. The regional haze situation is updated more frequently at 0300 UTC and 0900 UTC upon activation of Alert Level 2 or Alert Level 3. Updates at 0300 UTC display hotspot information from night-time passes of the NOAA-20 satellite. Fewer hotspots were typically detected at night as fire activities usually peak during the day.
  • Reprocessed satellite data will be availed at a later timing. The hotspot information derived from satellite data reprocessed may differ slightly from that received near real-time but reprocessing is necessary for better quality data.
  • The 2500 ft winds (depicted by arrows) are model analysis winds.

Seasonal Forecast for February – April 2026

Summary of Outlook

The Northeast Monsoon prevailed over the ASEAN region, with low-level winds blowing predominantly from the northwest or northeast, and typically persists over the ASEAN region until late March. During this period, the northern ASEAN region experiences its traditional dry season as the monsoon rainband remains south of the Equator. While showers are typical over the southern ASEAN region during its traditional wet season, this area can experience periods of drier conditions during the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, which typically takes place during February to late March. Around late March or early April, the prevailing low-level winds gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction as the Northeast Monsoon transitions into inter-monsoon conditions, when the showers gradually return to the northern ASEAN region.

For February 2026, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the northeastern Maritime Continent. For February – April 2026 the above-normal rainfall is predicted to persist, along with below-normal rainfall for much of the central Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February – March 2026. La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. Above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the Maritime Continent and northern and western Mainland Southeast Asia for FMA 2026.

With near- to below-normal rainfall predicted over the Mekong sub-region during the outlook period, further intensification of hotspots and smoke haze activities, with a risk of transboundary smoke haze occurrence, can be expected over fire-prone areas experiencing prolonged dry conditions. Over the southern ASEAN region, overall hotspot activity is expected to remain subdued. However, it could increase, with localised smoke plume occurrences, during periods of drier conditions under the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon, especially in areas where below-normal rainfall is predicted.

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